Scotland'spopulationisprojectedtocontinuefallingaccordingtofiguresissuedtodaybytheRegistrarGeneralforScotland.
RegistrarGeneralJohnRandallsaid:
"Undertheselatestprojections,whichreflectrecentdemographictrends,thepopulationofScotlandisprojectedtocontinuedecliningslowly.Thebiggestfactorinfluencingthepopulationchangeisthefallingnumberofbirths.MigrationflowstoandfromScotlandareprojectedtobalanceoutinthefuture."
Thefigures,compiledbyNationalStatistics,showthat:
ThetotalpopulationofScotlandisprojectedtofallfrom5.11millionin2000to4.93millionin2025
Thenumberofchildrenagedunder16isprojectedtofallto78percentofits2000levelbytheyear2025
Thenumberofpeopleoverpensionableageisprojectedtoriseby15percenttonearly1.1millionin2025.(Withoutallowingforthechangeinthepensionageofwomenfrom60to65between2010and2020,thenumberofpeopleoverpensionableagewouldhaveincreasedby36percentbetween2000and2025.)
TheGovernmentActuaryinconsultationwith,andattherequestof,theRegistrarsGeneralforScotland,EnglandandWales,andNorthernIreland,producespopulationprojectionsfortheUKanditsconstituentcountrieseverytwoyears.ThelatestprojectionisbasedontheRegistrarGeneral'smid-yearpopulationestimatesfor2000,andreplacestheprevious1998basedprojections.Theresultsoftheprojectionsbecomemoreuncertainthefurtheraheadtheyareprojected.Thereforetheresultsconcentrateontheperiodupto2025,thoughlonger-termprojectionsto2040areavailable.
TheRegistrarGeneralwillpublishsub-nationalpopulationprojectionsforcouncilandhealthboardareasinScotlandconsistentwiththenationalprojectionsearlyin2002.