Thedailynewspaper 　　willnot--not--disappear 　　Ifyouwanttoseeanewspapermansweat,mentionthedramaticdeclinesinnewspaperpurchasingamongyoungpeople. 　　Inrecentyearsthenumberofyoungpeoplespendingmoneyonnewspapershasfallenprecipitously,adevelopmentattributabletofactorsincluding24-hourcablenewsandtheinternet. 　　Seeingasneitherofthoseisgoingaway,thequestionbecomes:Howlowwillreadershipfall? 　　Lowenoughtokilloffnewspapersasweknowthemwithinagenerationortwoasthenon-readingkidsoftodaybecomethenon-readingadultsoftomorrow? 　　Morethanonemediaanalystthinksitwill. 　　Butaleadingstatisticiandisagrees,havingjustcompletedananalysisofconsumeranddemographicdatathatsuggeststhatnewspaperpurchasingwillleveloffatrateshigherthanpreviouslythought. 　　PeterFrancese,thefounderofAmericanDemographicsmagazine,conductedthestudyofnewspaperbuyinghabitsamongyouthfortheOttawayNewspaperGroup,whichdistributeshisnewspapercolumn. 　　From1985to1995,thepercentageofhouseholds25-34thatpurchasedanewspaperduringatwo-weekperiodfellfrom63to56percent,adecreaseof11percentoverthedecade. 　　By2000,thatfigurehadfallento35percent.Withyoungpeople’sattentionbeingsiphonedoffbyinternetandcablenews,purchasingofnewspapersinthatdemoplummeted37.5percentinjustfiveyears’time. 　　Butwhileit’struethatinrecentyearsyouthpurchasinglevelshavefallendramatically,Francesesays,demographicdatasuggeststhatitwon’thitdisastrouslylowlevels. 　　“Basedonmobilitydataandotherdataaboutmarriagesandbirths,there’safloortonewspaperpurchasing,probablyaroundonethird,”Francesesays. 　　“Whenyouputitalltogether,there’stremendousmobilityinthatdemo,butthere’sstillabaseofpeoplethatactinveryconventionalways.” 　　ArnoldKling,aneconomistandcolumnistforthewebsiteTechCentralStation,predictsthatyoungpeoplewillcontinuetofavorothernewssourcesinthefuture. 　　“Idon’tthinkthere’smuchofafloorthere,”saysKling.“Atthatpoint,whoknowswhatthetechnologywillbe,butI’mguessingthatnewspaperswillbemoreofanostalgiathingforpeoplewhorememberwhentheNewYorkTimeswastheNewYorkTimes.” 　　Extrapolationfromtheabovedata,Klingsays,showsthattoday’s25-34yearoldswillspendonlyhalfasmuchonnewspapersintwentyyearsastoday’s50yearoldsdonow. 　　“Presumablypurchasingby25-34yearoldswillonlygoupfromhereonout,becauseastheygetolderthey’llbuymorepapers,”Klingsays.“Theproblemisthatitwon’tgetuptolevelsofthecurrent50yearolds.” 　　Thishalvingofnewspaperpurchasing,Klingsays,willforcemanynewspapersoutofbusiness,thoughhepredictstheywillstillbearoundasphilanthropicenterprises. 　　Franceserespondsthatthisextrapolationisnotvalid,becausepredictionsbasedoncurrentpurchasingofnewspapersby25-34yearoldsfailtotakeintoaccountsignificantdemographicfactorsthatsuggestthenewspaperwillremainpopularinthefuture. 　　Foronething,Francesesays,researchshowsthatpeopleage25-34arethemostmobiledemographic,andpeopledon’tstartsubscribingtoanewspaperuntilthey’velivedinacommunityforfourorfiveyears.