E
ClimatehasbeenamajordriverofarmedconflictinAfricaresearchshows—andfuturewarmingislikelytoincreasethenumberofdeathsfromwar.USresearchersfoundthatacrossthecontinentconflictwasabout50%morelikelyinunusuallywarmyears.
WritinginProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences(PNAS)theysuggestconflictariseswhenthefoodsupplyisnotenoughinwarmconditions.Climaticfactorshavebeenmentionedasareasonforseveralrecentconflicts.OneisthefightinginDarfurinSudanthathaskilled200000peopleandforcedtwomillionmorefromtheirhomes.Previousresearchhasshownanassociationbetweenlackofrainandconflictbutthisisthoughttobethefirstclearevidenceofatemperaturelink.
Theresearchersuseddatabasesoftemperaturesacrosssub-SaharanAfricafortheperiodbetween1981and2002andlookedforconnectionsbetweenaboveaveragewarmthandcivilconflictinthesamecountrythatleftatleast1000peopledead."Studiesshowthatcropoutputintheregionisreallysensitivetosmallshiftsintemperatureevenofhalfadegreeorso"researchleaderMarshallBurkefromtheUniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeleytoldBBCNews.
"OurfindingsprovidestrongmotivationtoincreaseinvestmentsinAfricanadaptationtoclimatechangebysuchstepsasdevelopingcropvarietieslesssensitivetoextremeheatandpromotinginsuranceplanstohelpprotectfarmersfromnegativeeffectsofthehotterclimate"saidDrBurke."Iftheargumentisthatthetrendtowardsrisingtemperatureswillincreaseconflictthenweneedtodosomethingaroundclimatechangebutmorefundamentallyweneedtoresolvetheconflictsinthefirstplace."
Ifthesub-Saharanclimatecontinuestowarmandlittleisdonetohelpitscountriesbetteradapttohightemperaturesthehumancostsarelikelytobeunimaginable.Iftemperaturesriseacrossthecontinentascomputermodelsprojectfutureconflictsarelikelytobecomemorecommonresearcherssuggest.Theirstudyshowsanincreaseofabout50%overthenext20years.
WhenprojectionsofsocialtrendssuchaspopulationincreaseandeconomicdevelopmentwereincludedintheirmodelofafutureAfricatemperaturerisestillemergedasalikelymajorc