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【EClimatehasbeenamajordriverofarmedconflictinAfricaresearchshows—andfuturewarmingislikelytoincreasethenumberofdeathsfromwar.USresearchersfoundthatacrossthecontinentconflictwasabout50%more】
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ClimatehasbeenamajordriverofarmedconflictinAfricaresearchshows—andfuturewarmingislikelytoincreasethenumberofdeathsfromwar.USresearchersfoundthatacrossthecontinentconflictwasabout50%morelikelyinunusuallywarmyears.

WritinginProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences(PNAS)theysuggestconflictariseswhenthefoodsupplyisnotenoughinwarmconditions.Climaticfactorshavebeenmentionedasareasonforseveralrecentconflicts.OneisthefightinginDarfurinSudanthathaskilled200000peopleandforcedtwomillionmorefromtheirhomes.Previousresearchhasshownanassociationbetweenlackofrainandconflictbutthisisthoughttobethefirstclearevidenceofatemperaturelink.

Theresearchersuseddatabasesoftemperaturesacrosssub-SaharanAfricafortheperiodbetween1981and2002andlookedforconnectionsbetweenaboveaveragewarmthandcivilconflictinthesamecountrythatleftatleast1000peopledead."Studiesshowthatcropoutputintheregionisreallysensitivetosmallshiftsintemperatureevenofhalfadegreeorso"researchleaderMarshallBurkefromtheUniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeleytoldBBCNews.

"OurfindingsprovidestrongmotivationtoincreaseinvestmentsinAfricanadaptationtoclimatechangebysuchstepsasdevelopingcropvarietieslesssensitivetoextremeheatandpromotinginsuranceplanstohelpprotectfarmersfromnegativeeffectsofthehotterclimate"saidDrBurke."Iftheargumentisthatthetrendtowardsrisingtemperatureswillincreaseconflictthenweneedtodosomethingaroundclimatechangebutmorefundamentallyweneedtoresolvetheconflictsinthefirstplace."

Ifthesub-Saharanclimatecontinuestowarmandlittleisdonetohelpitscountriesbetteradapttohightemperaturesthehumancostsarelikelytobeunimaginable.Iftemperaturesriseacrossthecontinentascomputermodelsprojectfutureconflictsarelikelytobecomemorecommonresearcherssuggest.Theirstudyshowsanincreaseofabout50%overthenext20years.

WhenprojectionsofsocialtrendssuchaspopulationincreaseandeconomicdevelopmentwereincludedintheirmodelofafutureAfricatemperaturerisestillemergedasalikelymajorc

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